Trip.com Group, China’s largest online travel agency, said on Thursday that it expects second‑quarter revenue growth to be the slowest in more than three years, and warned that an ongoing antitrust probe could lead to a “significant fine.”
Revenue outlook shows slowdown amid higher travel costs
First‑quarter revenue rose 17 percent to 16.2 billion yuan (about US$2.4 billion), but the company now projects growth of just 3 to 8 percent for the next quarter. That range marks the weakest expansion since late 2022. Profit for the March quarter fell almost 42 percent to 2.5 billion yuan, the lowest level since late 2024.
CFO Cindy Wang told investors that rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions have pushed airfares higher, squeezed airline capacity and caused disruptions on certain international routes, especially long‑haul flights. “These factors have contributed to a moderation in air travel demand and changes in booking patterns,” she said on the earnings call.
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Antitrust investigation adds uncertainty
The State Administration for Market Regulation launched a probe in January that targets the firm’s business practices. The filing notes the investigation “could directly result in a significant fine, other financial penalties [or] changes to the company’s business practices,” which “may have a material adverse effect on the company’s consolidated financial position, results of operations, or cash flows.”
Trip.com declined to estimate the timing, outcome or potential loss from the inquiry. It added that it cannot predict the consequences of the probe, which has already prompted regulatory scrutiny of its train‑ticketing services.
Beijing’s municipal market regulator has twice summoned the firm this year over complaints about add‑on charges and misleading booking practices. In February, officials addressed those concerns, and two months later the Cyberspace Administration of China barred platforms from using automated programmes for large‑scale, high‑frequency ticket‑snatching operations. Wang said the new rules could create “near‑term headwinds,” but noted that train‑ticketing now accounts for a smaller share of revenue than before.
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International business shows resilience
While domestic travel faces headwinds, overseas operations remain a bright spot. The company runs the Trip.com and Skyscanner brands outside China. Gross bookings on those platforms jumped about 65 percent in the first quarter, and inbound travel bookings surged roughly 90 percent.
Analysts point to the strong growth in foreign‑market bookings as a counterbalance to the slowdown at home. “The international segment is offsetting some of the domestic pressure,” one market observer said, citing the firm’s diversified portfolio.
Stock reaction reflects mixed sentiment
Shares listed in Hong Kong fell 11 percent, closing at HK$315, while the Nasdaq‑traded stock rose 1.8 percent to US$46.30. The divergent moves highlight the split view among investors: domestic concerns weigh on the Hong Kong listing, whereas confidence in the U.S. market’s appetite for growth keeps the Nasdaq price modestly higher.
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In the meantime, the firm continues to manage regulatory expectations. An external commentary from a legal firm noted that “the Chinese market regulator has been increasingly active in the travel sector, and companies should prepare for tighter compliance requirements.” The note, posted on a legal‑industry site, reflects a broader trend of heightened scrutiny across e‑commerce platforms.
Looking ahead, Trip.com will have to balance the need to comply with new rules while trying to sustain growth in its international divisions.
The next earnings release will likely reveal whether the “significant fine” remains a distant threat or becomes a concrete financial hit.